Bitcoin, the most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization, usually has a solid month in May.
“In terms of revenue periodicity, BTC considers May to be a relative success. Bitcoin has finished the month up 7 times and down four times in the last 11 years “FxPro’s senior market analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, told CoinDesk.
Although no one can guarantee how a commodity will execute the plan, Kuptsikevich believes Bitcoin will exchange between $32,000 and $48,000 by the month. According to Kuptsikevich, he made this forecast relying on the cryptocurrency’s average increase of 27% and an average decrease of 16% in May, for a net gain of roughly 11%. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $38,528.
However, some experts are pessimistic that May will be as great for Bitcoin as it has been in history, citing the cryptocurrency’s previous trend of following the stock market, rising interest rates, the overall macroclimate, and general resistance to riskier assets.
Bitcoin’s 27 percent overall growth in May, according to Ming Wu, CEO of decentralized interest rates exchange Strips Finance, is “possibly a bit exaggerated” by its 149 percent gain in 2011 when the cryptocurrency was marketing at $3. According to Ming, significant price changes were easy back then because the price was so weak. He believes that taking the median of Bitcoin’s past data in May, or the statistical set’s midpoint, rather than the average, would be more instructive.
“As economic circumstances stiffen, the average move of 3.4 percent likely paints a much more precise picture of what to expect from BTC in May,” Ming said. We’ve seen a “threat climate” in the last five months, with investors abandoning riskier assets and turning to safe-haven assets like gold. This has affected Bitcoin, which is far from protected. So, according to Ming, a 3.4 percent rise for cryptocurrency would be the ideal situation.
“The market is anticipating a dramatic hike this week. Most markets are expected to stay under stress,” Armando Aguilar, head of alternative strategies at Ledn, a digital asset financial services firm, told Fortune. “A range of investment assets move in direct connection in these forms of market conditions.” Bitcoin’s connection to the S& P 500 is near an all-time high, which is unsurprising.”
Lucas Outumuro, the head of research at IntoTheBlock, a crypto market analytics organization, thinks that the Fed’s interest rate choices constitute a significant factor, but is skeptical that Bitcoin will see a price increase very soon.
“To be honest, I find it impossible for Bitcoin to build a broader up-trend until the market starts looking past the impact [quantitative tightening] and hiking rates will have, “Outumuro told Fortune.
“In average, these monthly seasonality forecasts are not sufficient enough to draw judgements,” he continued. “We have seen the same type of data crop up, claiming that December is typically a good month for crypto prices, but it was anything but that.”
Bitcoin declined 19 percent in December, the worst monthly drop since May and the worst December since 2013.
According to Michael Safai, managing partner of Dexterity Capital, a cryptocurrency proprietary trading firm, economic data is “too grim” for cryptocurrency investors to imagine any upside right now. He also highlighted the link between Bitcoin and the regular stock market.