Bitcoin fell to US$81,926 on Bitstamp after the Wall Street open on 14 October 2026, as Cointelegraph reported that US September CPI inflation printed at 3.7% year-on-year, coming in 0.1 percentage point above majority market consensus. Crypto, gold and stock-market futures all moved lower in the immediate aftermath, according to TradingView data cited in the report.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the headline figure, with gasoline the dominant driver. The gasoline index rose 9.1% in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase, while the broader energy index climbed 5.2% over the month, following a 2.1% rise in August.
Bond yields spike, gold slides
The macro read-through was immediate in rates markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.329%, around three basis points short of a new 24-year high. Gold dropped to US$4,079 per ounce on the print. Economist Robin Brooks described the timing as the worst possible for fixed income: ‘This is the last thing global bond markets needed. Prior to this number, it looked like the global bond sell-off was calming, but now bond markets are catching on fire again,’ he wrote in a blog post.
Core CPI, stripping out energy and food, also came in 0.1 percentage point above forecasts at 2.6% year-on-year. Carson Group chief macro strategist Sonu Varghese told CNBC that the overshoot was predictable: ‘The only surprise is that investors keep getting surprised by broad-based inflation. And we’ve yet to see the full impact of higher diesel prices and the AI boom.’
Fed rate expectations shift on the data
The CPI print moved the dial on Federal Reserve policy expectations. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which calculates FOMC rate-move probabilities from 30-Day Fed Fund futures pricing, showed the majority of market participants repricing towards a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s 27-28 October meeting. The probability of that outcome stood at 53.7% after the release, up from 22.1% the session prior. For December, the odds of a second 25-basis-point hike were priced at 50%.
Theresa Sheehan, economic analyst at Econoday, offered a more cautious read: ‘Taken in combination with the soft payroll numbers in the September employment report, the FOMC is probably on hold for any rate moves at the upcoming October 27-28 meeting although with a definite bias toward a hike in December.’
BTC range holds, PPI next
Despite the macro pressure, BTC price action continued to oscillate around the US$82,500 to US$83,400 range, with the market yet to confirm whether that band acts as support or resistance. The next scheduled US inflation data point is the September Producer Price Index (PPI), due for release on 16 October 2026.
