XRP whale inflows to Binance have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, averaging $61 million over the past three months, even as XRP briefly broke below $1 on 17 August before recovering toward $1.06.
The confluence of a psychologically charged price test and a sharp retreat in whale deposit activity has sharpened the market’s focus on whether the token can sustain its recovery.
XRP Whale Inflows to Binance at a Three-Year Low
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost reported the three-month average for XRP whale deposits to Binance has collapsed from $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October to roughly $61 million now. Darkfost characterised the decline as part of broader sell-side exhaustion, noting that ‘demand hasn’t yet picked up the slack.’
Lower exchange deposits can reduce potential sell-side supply, but they are not a bullish guarantee: demand can deteriorate at the same time. Binance netflows remained net positive at roughly $18.8 million at the time of reporting, according to BeInCrypto citing Darkfost, meaning deposits still outweighed withdrawals.
Open interest on Binance tells a different story. According to BeInCrypto citing analyst Amr Taha, Binance XRP open interest (OI) climbed from roughly $181 million on 3 August to $232.7 million on 17 August, a 28.6% rise in two weeks and the highest reading since June 2026. The seven-day change had been near negative $40 million on 29 July; it has since flipped to a positive $38.9 million. Rising OI alongside a price recovery suggests fresh positioning rather than short covering alone, though leverage cuts both ways at a key support level.
Brandt’s Preference for Bitcoin and His Track Record on XRP
Veteran trader Peter Brandt renewed his scepticism of XRP on 17 August, writing on X: ‘Who the heck even cares about XRP?’ He added that he trades futures and ‘I would convert it immediately to BTC’ if he held half a million XRP. A hypothetical 500,000 XRP position at $1.059 would be worth roughly $529,500. Brandt did not disclose any actual XRP position; his comment reflects a stated asset preference, not a new trade.
His call has precedent. In early October 2025, Brandt named XRP his top short candidate with a target near $2.20 while it was trading around $2.79, according to AOL. XRP subsequently fell to $1.57. His March 2025 head-and-shoulders analysis had flagged $1.07 as a downside target if support gave way; the price has since approached that area, though the gap in timing matters for any assessment of the original call’s precision.
Brandt’s Bitcoin preference should not be read as an unqualified BTC bull call. He has previously said Bitcoin could revisit roughly $58,000 following a head-and-shoulders breakdown, while explicitly stating he had not entered that trade.
Sentiment data from analytics firm Santiment, cited by BeInCrypto, recorded crowd commentary on XRP at a three-month bearish peak across X, Reddit, and Telegram at the time of the $1 test. Moving against that sentiment, on-chain activity showed 49,929 active addresses in a single 24-hour span, the highest in over two months.
On the question of where XRP sits relative to its peak: CoinGecko places the all-time high at $3.65 on 17 July 2025, leaving XRP roughly 71% below that level at current prices. CoinMarketCap lists a higher all-time high of $3.84, recorded on 4 January 2018; the two figures reflect different exchange coverage and data methodologies, so the percentage drawdown varies by source.
The immediate setup is a straightforward binary. XRP reclaimed $1 after Sunday’s intraday break, and the OI expansion suggests traders are re-engaging rather than exiting. If the $1 level holds on the next test with volume confirming, it reinforces the base. A clean daily close below $1 on elevated volume, by contrast, opens the path toward the $1.07 target Brandt identified in March 2025, a level XRP is now trading uncomfortably close to from above.
