The Bitcoin Hormuz blockade drop accelerated on 13 July after President Trump reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% cargo fee on all ships transiting the waterway under US protection, sending BTC to around $62,240, down nearly 3% in 24 hours.
What Trump Actually Announced, and What It Unravels
In a Truth Social post, Trump declared the US would act as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ targeting only Iranian ships and their customers while keeping the passage open ‘with or without Iran’ for other nations. The 20% levy would, in his framing, reimburse the cost of US military protection in the region. Implementation, he said, would begin immediately.
According to ABC News, the move effectively erases a key concession that had been part of a preliminary peace framework with Tehran. The blockade reinstatement follows Trump’s earlier, broader proposal to place the entire strait under US control after Iran floated its own toll scheme for vessels crossing the chokepoint.
Iran’s response was immediate. Anadolu Agency reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy announced the strait will remain closed until further notice and until all US interventions in the region cease. NPR reports Iranian forces also fired on at least one commercial vessel operating in the waterway following the announcement.
Daily transits through the strait have already collapsed. Polymarket’s market context for its July 15 resolution contract notes crossings have fallen to fewer than 10 vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline of more than 100, with hundreds of ships stranded in the region. One recent session saw just 22 vessels complete the transit, according to the August 31 contract’s market context on Polymarket, which also notes war-risk insurance premiums have risen and oil-price volatility remains elevated.
Prediction Markets Price the Bitcoin Hormuz Blockade Drop as a Long-Duration Risk
Polymarket’s probability estimates have moved decisively in one direction. The contract asking whether Hormuz shipping returns to normal by 31 August shows only a 16% chance of ‘Yes,’ down sharply from roughly 48% earlier this month after Trump declared the ceasefire finished. For the nearer-dated July 31 contract, the market is even more emphatic: Blockchain.News, citing Polymarket data, puts the ‘No’ at 98.45% on $18.55 million in matched volume.
The broader geopolitical risk is also being priced. The ‘Will the US invade Iran before 2027?’ contract sits at 69.5% ‘No’ on $44,980,250 in matched volume, per the same Blockchain.News report, implying the market sees a roughly 30% probability of direct military escalation within the next 18 months.
BTC Technical Setup Adds Headwinds
Bitcoin’s chart structure was already fragile before the Hormuz news broke. The token had failed to hold above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $63,200 and slipped back below the 50-day simple moving average around $64,650. Price remains inside a descending channel that has been in place since May.
Longer-term trend anchors are far overhead: the 100-day and 200-day moving averages sit near $70,700 and $73,800 respectively. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator remains slightly positive at around 0.06, suggesting capital inflows have not fully reversed, though resistance between $63,200 and $64,600 is capping any recovery attempt. The next meaningful support is near the 20-day moving average around $61,870, with $60,000 the psychologically weighted level below that.
A de-escalation signal from Tehran or a formal diplomatic channel reopening would be the clearest catalyst to shift Polymarket’s August 31 odds and give BTC a path back above the 50-day SMA. Until that materialises, the $60,000 level is the threshold traders are watching most closely.
