Bitcoin crashed through $65,118 Monday morning as global markets digested President Trump’s threat to impose a 15% global tariff. The bitcoin crash came after the Supreme Court ruled his IEEPA tariffs illegal, triggering risk-off flows across stocks and crypto.
Major altcoins followed Bitcoin lower. Ethereum broke $1,897. Solana slid toward $76. The S&P 500 chopped between 6,775 and 7,002, unable to find direction.
Meanwhile, fear gripped crypto markets.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 5 out of 100. That’s extreme fear territory. Pseudonymous trader BitcoinHyper noted the index has stayed this low for nearly three weeks—the longest stretch since 2022. Back then, Bitcoin was carving out a bottom near $15,500 after the FTX collapse.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
The bitcoin crash pushed traders on Polymarket to increase the odds of BTC falling below $55,000 to 72%. That prediction market expectation matches calls from several analysts and financial institutions who see a test near or below that level as increasingly likely. Question is whether buyers show up there.
Economist Timothy Peterson offered a contrarian take. He said in a post on X that BTC has been positive 50% of the time over the past 24 months. Using a statistical model, Peterson estimated an 88% chance that BTC “will be higher 10 months from now.”
Long-term optimism meets short-term pain.
Bitcoin now trades just above the critical $60,000 support level. Bulls attempted to defend $65,118 on a closing basis Monday but failed to hold. Any relief rally faces immediate resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average near $70,185. If price turns down sharply from that level, it increases the likelihood of a drop to $60,000.
Break $60,000 and the bitcoin crash accelerates toward $52,500. That’s the next major support zone where buyers defended price during previous selloffs. Bulls must defend $60,000 with conviction, or the technical damage deepens.
Hold above $60,000 and buyers get a shot at reclaiming the 20-day EMA. Push above that level and Bitcoin could march toward $74,508, where sellers previously capped rallies. That’s the framework for the next week.
Altcoins face similar pressure. Ethereum dropped below $1,897 Monday, opening the door to a retest of $1,750. The downsloping moving averages and RSI near oversold territory increase the risk of further breakdown. If $1,750 breaks, ETH could slide to $1,537.
Solana failed to reclaim the $95 breakdown level, signaling that bears remain active at higher levels. Sellers will attempt to pull SOL below $76, which could open the door to the February 6 low of $67. That’s a critical support. Lose it and Solana drops to $60.
XRP trades between the support line of its descending channel and the 20-day EMA at $1.47. The downsloping moving average and negative RSI reading indicate bears control the trend. If the support line cracks, XRP could retest the February 6 low of $1.11. Break below that and psychological support at $1 comes into play.
BNB fell below $587 Monday but showed buying at lower levels, evidenced by the long lower wick on the daily candle. Bulls will attempt to spark a recovery, but selling likely emerges at the 20-day EMA near $651. If price turns down from there, bears will try to pull BNB below $570. Success there opens the path to $500.
Dogecoin turned down from the 20-day EMA at $0.10 Saturday and looks headed for the February 6 low of $0.08. Bulls are expected to defend that level aggressively. Failure to do so could trigger the next leg of the downturn toward $0.06.
Bitcoin Cash pushed above the 50-day simple moving average at $571 Sunday but couldn’t sustain higher levels. Bears sold aggressively and pulled BCH below the 20-day EMA at $551. If price holds below $538, Bitcoin Cash could plummet to strong support at $500. Close below that and $443 comes into view.
Cardano failed repeated attempts to break above the 20-day EMA at $0.28. That increases the likelihood of a drop to the support line of its descending channel. If price continues lower and breaks that support, it signals the resumption of the downtrend toward $0.15.
The macro backdrop remains hostile. Trump’s 15% tariff threat injects fresh uncertainty into global markets at a time when risk appetite was already fragile. The Supreme Court ruling that IEEPA tariffs were illegal sets up a clash between executive power and judicial oversight—exactly the kind of headline that spooks institutional capital.
Correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq remains elevated, meaning crypto continues to trade like a risk asset rather than an inflation hedge. When stocks sell off, Bitcoin sells off. Simple as that.
The US Dollar Index turned down from the 50-day simple moving average at 97.95 Friday, suggesting bears are defending that level. Sellers are attempting to sink the index below the 20-day EMA at 97.48. If they succeed, DXY could slide to the 96.21-95.55 support zone. A weaker dollar typically provides tailwinds for Bitcoin, but that relationship has broken down during recent risk-off episodes.
Traders face a binary setup. Hold $60,000 and Bitcoin gets breathing room to consolidate and potentially bounce. Break $60,000 and the bitcoin crash extends toward $52,500, dragging altcoins deeper into the red.
For now, all eyes on $60,000. That’s the line in the sand.
