Bitcoin dropped under $63,000 Tuesday morning. The bitcoin etf outflow reached $200 million Monday, per Farside Investors data. That’s the latest leg in an institutional exit that started October 2025.
Not a store of value anymore. That’s the harsh reality.
EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson posted the thesis Tuesday on X. “BTC didn’t fail as an asset. It succeeded as an ETF. And that’s the problem,” he explained. Bitcoin became a “high-beta tech position” the moment institutions piled in through spot ETFs. Now it trades in lockstep with BlackRock’s iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF—ticker IGV.
**The ETF Problem**
From $126,000 to $63,000. Every IGV selloff drags Bitcoin down with it. BlackRock runs both IGV and IBIT, the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF. That creates a correlation problem Bitcoin never had before 2024.
“IBIT changed who owns Bitcoin,” Jackson noted. The marginal buyer this cycle isn’t retail—it’s institutions. Retail went into tech stocks instead. That’s the opposite of 2021, when retail chased Bitcoin to $69,000 while funds stayed cautious.
Gold hit new all-time highs recently. Bitcoin got left behind. The current bitcoin etf outflow mirrors the selling pattern that hit every past cycle top. Retail dumped at $20,000 in 2017. Funds exited at $69,000 in 2021. ETF allocators are bailing at $63,000 in 2025.
Weak hands filtered out. Same script, different logo.
**What Comes Next**
Jackson sees a shift coming. The bitcoin etf outflow clears the deck for longer-duration capital. “What comes next? Sovereign wealth funds. Corporate treasuries. Pension capital,” he forecast. “Money that doesn’t rebalance into quarters. Money that doesn’t correlate to IGV. Money that holds for decades, not cycles.”
That’s the purification. Short-term institutional money exits. Long-term institutional money enters. Different ethos. Different time horizon. Different conviction.
“The institutional exit isn’t the end of the BTC thesis. It’s the purification of it,” Jackson argued.
Historical precedent backs this. Every cycle filters out weak hands. Every cycle, what replaces them holds longer. 2017 retail sold to 2021 funds. 2021 funds sold to 2025 ETF allocators. 2025 ETF allocators will sell to sovereign wealth funds and corporate treasuries that hold for decades.
The question: when does the transition happen?
**The Technical Picture**
Bitcoin dipped under $63,000 Tuesday, per TradingView data. That marks the lowest level since hitting 15-month lows in February. Market participants now target the $50,000 zone as the next potential bottom, Cointelegraph reported.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue bleeding. Regular net outflows compound the bearish price action. The bitcoin etf outflow pattern shows no signs of reversing yet.
Jackson identified two triggers that could flip the script: IGV selling pressure needs to end, and stablecoin supply on exchanges needs to expand again. Stablecoin supply expansion historically precedes Bitcoin rallies because it represents fresh buying power entering the market.
Neither trigger has fired yet.
**The Bigger Shift**
Institutions became the marginal buyer this cycle. That changed Bitcoin’s character. It now moves like a tech stock, not digital gold. The correlation with IGV proves it. When tech sells off, Bitcoin sells off. When growth assets crater, Bitcoin craters.
That wasn’t the original thesis. Bitcoin was supposed to be uncorrelated, a hedge against traditional finance. Instead, ETFs turned it into just another institutional allocation that gets sold when risk-off hits.
But Jackson argues that’s temporary. The current bitcoin etf outflow phase represents short-term institutional money exiting. What comes next is fundamentally different capital with fundamentally different time horizons.
Sovereign wealth funds don’t rebalance quarterly. Corporate treasuries don’t sell when tech stocks dip 10%. Pension capital doesn’t chase momentum. These buyers accumulate and hold for decades, not months.
When that capital arrives, Bitcoin’s correlation with IGV breaks. The store-of-value thesis returns. The purification completes.
**What to Watch**
Two metrics matter now. First: IGV. If the tech selloff ends, Bitcoin catches a bid. The correlation works both ways. Second: stablecoin supply on exchanges. When that number climbs, fresh buying power enters crypto. That historically marks local bottoms.
The bitcoin etf outflow continues for now. Allocators keep selling. Price keeps grinding lower. But every cycle, weak hands exit before strong hands enter. The purification is painful. It’s also necessary.
Jackson’s thesis: this institutional exit clears the path for better institutional entry. Shorter-duration capital leaves. Longer-duration capital waits to deploy. The 2025 sellers make room for the 2026 buyers.
Question is whether $63,000 holds or $50,000 comes first. For now, the selling continues. All eyes on IGV and stablecoin supply.
