Bitcoin closed below its 200-week exponential moving average on Sunday. First time since October 2023. The bitcoin trend break ended an 882-day support streak—the longest uninterrupted run above this level in over two years.
Price closed near $67,628. That’s below the 200-week EMA. The bitcoin trend break came as weekly momentum deteriorated across multiple timeframes, shifting what had been a reliable floor into potential overhead resistance.
Not just a wick below. Clean weekly close.
**What Happens After Breaking the 200-Week EMA**
Past cycles offer a roadmap. In 2018, Bitcoin traded under the 200-week EMA for roughly 14 weeks before reclaiming it. March 2020’s liquidity shock saw an eight-week recovery period. The 2022 bear market kept BTC beneath this average for nearly 30 weeks—the longest stretch on record.
Average time below the line: 17 to 18 weeks.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted the shift: “This technically means that the EMA has been lost as support and that price could turn it into resistance on any upcoming recovery.”
That’s the pattern. Support becomes resistance. The bitcoin trend break mirrors this historical behavior. Every prior instance required multiple retests before flipping back to support. Bulls didn’t reclaim the level on first attempt.
Question is whether this cycle compresses that timeline or extends it.
**On-Chain Metrics Show Cooling Participation**
Entity-adjusted liveliness peaked in December 2025, shortly after Bitcoin reached an all-time high near $126,000 in October. The metric measures coin days destroyed relative to coin days created, adjusted for internal wallet shuffling.
Liveliness has since dropped below both its 30-day and 90-day moving averages. The 90-day reading sits at 0.02622, still above the 365-day average but declining. Similar rollovers occurred in 2020 and 2022. Both preceded accumulation phases lasting one to two years.
Falling liveliness means less spending activity. Coins stay dormant. Capital rotation slows. That backdrop historically extended the time needed to rebuild positions and push price back above key technical thresholds like the 200-week EMA.
The bitcoin trend break arrives amid this participation cooldown. Not during panic selling or volume spikes. Just steady erosion of long-term holder activity.
**The Demand Zone: Realized Price Levels**
Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $55,000. That figure represents the average on-chain cost basis of all coins in circulation. Below that, the shifted realized price—which projects the metric forward—trades near $42,000.
These bands outline the long-term value area. Since 2015, the region between the 200-week EMA and the realized price cluster has functioned as an accumulation zone during drawdowns. Past cycles saw consolidation periods of six to eight months around these levels before sustained upside continuation.
BTC currently trades between $67,628 (the 200-week EMA) and $55,000 (realized price). Hold above $55,000 and the technical damage remains contained. Break realized price and the next support band drops to $42,000—a level that would represent roughly 33% downside from the 200-week EMA.
That’s where liquidity concentrates during deeper corrections.
**Reclaiming the 200-Week EMA: The Timeline**
History suggests a multi-week process. The shortest recovery took eight weeks in 2020. The longest stretched to 30 weeks in 2022. Average: 17 to 18 weeks, or roughly four months.
This bitcoin trend break just started. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could trade below $67,628 through late spring or early summer before attempting a sustained reclaim. That assumes similar conditions to past cycles—steady accumulation without external shocks accelerating or delaying the timeline.
Momentum indicators support a slower recovery. Liveliness declining. Volume compressing. Long-term holders less active. These conditions align with extended consolidation rather than V-shaped reversals.
No capitulation event yet. Just technical erosion.
**What’s Next for Bitcoin**
The 200-week EMA now acts as resistance until proven otherwise. Bulls need to close weekly candles back above $67,628 to restore the prior uptrend structure. That hasn’t happened yet. Every retest risks rejection.
Downside focus shifts to the realized price band near $55,000. Lose that level and the shifted realized price at $42,000 becomes the next logical target based on historical accumulation patterns. Between those levels, expect choppy, range-bound trading as the market determines whether the bitcoin trend break extends into a deeper correction or resolves with a quicker reclaim.
Past cycles required four months on average. This one just started the clock.
All eyes on $67,628. That’s the level that separates recovery from continuation of the technical breakdown.
