Michael Saylor isn’t worried about quantum computers cracking Bitcoin. Strategy’s CEO told Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast the quantum computing threat sits more than a decade away. The cybersecurity community broadly agrees, he said.
No credible breakthrough imminent. That’s the consensus Saylor cited. If quantum computers advanced enough to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, the entire digital world would face the same problem. Banks. Internet infrastructure. AI networks. Consumer devices. All would need coordinated software upgrades.
“You’ll see it coming. We’ll all see it coming,” Saylor said. Bitcoin’s software is designed to evolve. Nodes upgrade. Hardware adapts. Wallets update in response to emerging threats. Any quantum computing threat would trigger a global response, not catch the world off guard.
Saylor described the crypto sector as the “most sophisticated cybersecurity community.” Multi-factor authentication. Hardware key protections. Security procedures for moving Bitcoin exceed those for traditional bank wires or stock trading systems. “I think the crypto community will be the first to perceive the threat, and to react to the threat, and they’ll be leading the way,” he said.
Strategy holds 717,722 Bitcoin. That’s $54.56 billion invested at an average price of $67,286 per coin. The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company announced Monday it purchased 592 Bitcoin for roughly $39.8 million last week—its 100th acquisition since adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020. Strategy is the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world.
Not everyone shares Saylor’s calm.
Vitalik Buterin cited Metaculus, a forecasting platform, in late 2025. The data suggested around a 20% chance quantum computers capable of breaking current cryptography could emerge before 2030. Median estimate: around 2040. Speaking months later at Devconnect in Buenos Aires, Buterin warned that elliptic curve cryptography—which underpins Ethereum and Bitcoin—could fail before the 2028 US presidential election. He urged a transition to quantum-resistant systems within the next four years.
The quantum computing threat has divided Bitcoin’s biggest voices. Ethereum researcher Justin Drake announced January 24 that a dedicated Post-Quantum team had been formed at the Ethereum Foundation. The move marked a turning point in the foundation’s long-term quantum strategy. Post-quantum preparedness is now incorporated into the Ethereum Foundation’s 2026 security roadmap.
Some analysts blame quantum concerns for Bitcoin’s recent crash. The asset fell from highs over $126,000 in October to around $64,000 currently. Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter said in January that Bitcoin’s “mysterious” underperformance could be attributed to quantum risk concerns. Markets were reacting even if developers were not, he argued.
Glassnode analyst James Check pushed back. Quantum computing plans should be put in place, he wrote, but the quantum computing threat is not the “primary reason” behind the price decline. Other factors—macro conditions, ETF flows, leverage liquidations—explain the crash more directly.
Quantum computing uses quantum mechanics to process information far faster than classical computers. Advanced machines could eventually break the cryptography securing Bitcoin and other digital assets. That’s the fear. The timeline remains the debate.
Saylor’s view: global consensus on how to respond would emerge only if a credible threat develops. Governments, technology companies, and financial institutions would all face the same risk to their digital systems. Coordinated upgrades would follow. Post-quantum-resistant cryptography would become standard across banking, internet infrastructure, and crypto protocols.
The crypto community would lead that transition, Saylor maintained. Security standards in digital assets already exceed traditional finance. Hardware wallets require multiple confirmations. Multi-signature setups protect large holdings. Institutional custody involves layered security protocols. Traditional bank wires? One password and a phone call.
Bitcoin’s architecture allows for upgrades. The network has adapted before—SegWit in 2017, Taproot in 2021. Both required coordination across miners, node operators, wallet providers, and exchanges. A quantum upgrade would follow the same process, just with higher stakes and broader participation.
Timing matters. Buterin’s warning: elliptic curve cryptography could fail before 2028. Saylor’s timeline: more than 10 years, likely longer. Metaculus median estimate: 2040. The range spans two decades. One side is preparing now. The other says there’s time.
For now, the debate rages while Bitcoin’s price reflects uncertainty. Whether the quantum computing threat materializes in five years or twenty, the crypto industry is watching. Some are already building defenses. Others are waiting for clearer signals.
All eyes on quantum developments.
