Standard Chartered maintained its $2 trillion stablecoin forecast for 2028 despite slashing Treasury bill demand projections by half. The stablecoin forecast stays bullish even as the bank cuts its T-bill estimate from $1.6 trillion to $800 billion-$1 trillion.
Analysts Geoffrey Kendrick and John Davies delivered the revised numbers Monday in a report shared with Cointelegraph. The message: stablecoins still hit $2 trillion by late 2028. T-bill demand just won’t be as aggressive.
**Why the T-Bill Cut?**
The original April 2025 forecast projected stablecoins would generate $1.6 trillion in fresh T-bill demand by 2028. That number dropped to $800 billion-$1 trillion in the latest report. A hefty reduction—but not enough to derail the broader market call.
Stablecoins like Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC back reserves with short-term US Treasury bills. Bigger stablecoin market cap means more T-bill purchases. That’s the theory.
Standard Chartered’s analysts now expect stablecoins to push total T-bill demand to $2.2 trillion by 2028, combining existing holdings with new purchases. The adjustment reflects tempered expectations for how aggressively issuers will load T-bills relative to total market growth.
**Market Stalled at $300 Billion**
The USD stablecoin market cap sits around $300 billion currently. It stalled there in recent months amid broader crypto market weakness. Bitcoin crashed from November highs. Altcoins followed. Trading volume dried up.
Lower volatility and reduced speculation mean less stablecoin minting. Traders use stablecoins to move between exchanges and sit in “cash” during uncertainty. When markets freeze, so does stablecoin demand.
Standard Chartered called these issues “cyclical rather than structural.” Translation: temporary problem, not permanent break. The stablecoin forecast holds because the bank sees the market downturn as typical bear market behavior.
**GENIUS Act Changed the Game**
The passage of the US GENIUS Act in 2025 anchors Standard Chartered’s confidence. The legislation created regulatory clarity for stablecoin issuers and established reserve requirements.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted in early February that the GENIUS Act could serve as “an important feature of financing the US government.” That statement signals official recognition of stablecoins as a funding tool for federal debt.
The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement the same day cited “growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector.” Standard Chartered analysts interpreted that as acknowledgment of stablecoin-driven T-bill appetite.
Question is whether the Treasury actually issues more bills to meet this projected demand. The bank’s analysts expect it will.
**T-Bill Scarcity Risk**
Standard Chartered raised another concern: T-bills might become “overly scarce.” The stablecoin forecast projects massive private sector demand hitting the same market the Federal Reserve is tapping.
The Fed recently commenced reserve management purchases (RMPs) and started replacing maturing mortgage-backed securities with T-bills. That adds government buying pressure on top of stablecoin demand.
“Stablecoin-related demand, in conjunction with the Fed’s recent decision to commence RMPs and replace its maturing MBS with T-bills, could arguably cause T-bills to become overly scarce,” the analysts wrote.
Scarcity could push T-bill yields lower, making them less attractive for stablecoin reserves. That creates a potential bottleneck—unless the Treasury expands issuance to match demand.
**SEC Cleared Broker-Dealer Path**
Separate regulatory developments support the stablecoin forecast. The SEC recently allowed broker-dealers to take a 2% “haircut” on stablecoins held as collateral.
That rule change makes it easier for traditional financial firms to handle stablecoin transactions. Broker-dealers can now integrate USDT and USDC into existing infrastructure without treating them as zero-value assets.
Institutional adoption depends on regulatory comfort. The SEC’s haircut rule signals regulators see stablecoins as legitimate financial instruments with measurable value and risk profiles.
**Bitcoin Forecast Takes a Hit**
Standard Chartered’s crypto optimism doesn’t extend equally across all assets. The bank previously forecast Bitcoin would hit $500,000 by end-2028. That call still stands—for now.
But the 2026 target dropped. Standard Chartered recently lowered its Bitcoin price projection for 2026 from $150,000 to $100,000. Analysts now expect BTC could fall as low as $50,000 before recovering.
The stablecoin forecast holds firm while the Bitcoin forecast wobbles. Different assets, different risk profiles. Stablecoins benefit from regulatory clarity and institutional use cases. Bitcoin faces macro uncertainty and ETF flow volatility.
**What Drives the Stablecoin Forecast**
Standard Chartered’s confidence in the stablecoin forecast despite cutting T-bill demand rests on three pillars: regulatory clarity via GENIUS Act, institutional adoption momentum, and structural demand for dollar-backed digital assets.
Stablecoins serve functions beyond speculation. Cross-border payments, remittances, DeFi collateral, and exchange settlements all require stablecoin infrastructure. That utility creates baseline demand independent of crypto price action.
The $300 billion market cap represents current adoption. Doubling to $600 billion would match previous bull market highs. Reaching $2 trillion requires mainstream integration—corporate treasuries, payment processors, and emerging market adoption.
Each of those channels exists today in early stages. The question isn’t whether they’ll grow. It’s how fast.
**T-Bill Math Still Works**
Even with the reduced forecast, $800 billion to $1 trillion in fresh T-bill demand represents significant Treasury market impact. Total T-bill outstanding currently sits near $6 trillion.
Adding $1 trillion from stablecoins would push private sector T-bill holdings notably higher. That gives the Treasury justification to shift debt issuance toward shorter maturities—which Bessent’s February comments suggested he’s open to doing.
The stablecoin forecast projects stablecoins become a structural feature of US government financing. Not the dominant player. But large enough to matter in Treasury’s funding strategy.
**Timeline to $2 Trillion**
Late 2028 gives the market roughly 3.5 years to add $1.7 trillion in stablecoin market cap. That requires average growth of roughly $485 billion per year.
For context, the stablecoin market grew from under $20 billion in early 2020 to over $180 billion by end-2021—a $160 billion jump in less than two years during a bull market. The current $300 billion baseline already proves the infrastructure can scale.
Bear markets compress growth. Bull markets accelerate it. Standard Chartered’s stablecoin forecast assumes at least one major bull cycle before end-2028, plus ongoing structural adoption regardless of price action.
All eyes on $500 billion. That’s the next psychological milestone—and a signal that post-GENIUS Act adoption is accelerating as expected.
