The good results obtained by the pharmaceutical companies Pfizer, Moderna and Astrazeneca in the trials of their vaccines against Covid-19 allow a clearer glimpse of the way out of the health and economic crisis.
Therefore, experts recommend investors to review their portfolios and rebalance them taking into account that vaccines could be available in the first half of 2021.
“If vaccines manage to control the expansion of the virus and in a few months the definitive return to normality begins, a scenario that some investors are already beginning to discount, it would be necessary to opt for assets such as equities and mineral raw materials,” says Juan José Fernández-Figares, director of the analysis department of Link Securities.
Within the variable income Fernández Figares opts for industrial companies, among them automobile manufacturers; by listed companies related to leisure and travel, especially airlines; and by some banks and insurers .
“All these securities have been badly hit during the crisis and their valuations, at first, invite us to take positions in them,” says the Link Securities analyst.
Technological, well positioned.He also considers that technology companies can continue to provide good opportunities , since “although they are being discarded by many investors, we continue to believe that they will be the best performers once the pandemic is over , because we expect the recovery to be slow and uneven, and in this scenario, many technological values will continue to increase their benefits at a high rate ”.
By geographical areas in which to invest, Fernández Figares bets on China, Southeast Asia, the US and Europe.
Energetic, in quick recovery.The energy sector is another one that analysts are betting heavily on.
Thus, Darío García, from XTB , believes that investors should weigh their portfolios and incorporate those sectors that may be the first to return to normal when the pandemic ends, such as energy.
In his opinion, ” the listed companies in the energy sector, both electricity and natural gas, will be the first to begin to recover.”
Also the tourism sector, one of the most damaged by the health crisis, is a good option for Darío García, since “the return to mobility will favor the listing of companies such as IAG , Amadeus and Meliá Hotels .”
Regarding the retail sector of retail sale, it leans towards listed companies such as Inditex and H&M.
Risk assets on the rise
From Robeco they consider that the combination of a punctual and effective vaccine with the budgetary and monetary stimulus measures that are being maintained would lead to an increase in GDP and would give continuity to the growth of business profits.
Therefore, ” earnings per share (EPS) would be around levels close to those registered before the Covid-19 outbreak , which would imply an approximate growth of 20%, as the economic cycle goes from recession to recovery” .
In this scenario, they consider that ” 2021 will be a good year for risk assets , with equities obtaining higher than average returns ” and this favorable situation for risk assets ” would also benefit emerging market debt denominated in local currency. , since there is ample room for emerging currencies recoup their heavy losses against the US dollar. “
In the opinion of Jeroen Blokland, head of multi-asset funds at Robeco , everything will depend on when the vaccine arrives, how effective it is and how well it returns to the new normal.
However, “we believe that macroeconomic and market volatility will decline considerably as the new normal takes shape. This type of situation tends to be a good omen for financial markets, and therefore we are quite optimistic for 2021, “says the Robeco expert.