The Polymarket $1 billion raise is being led by 1789 Capital, the Palm Beach-based investment firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, at a headline valuation of $21 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. The new $300 million cheque from 1789 Capital would bring its total exposure to the platform to roughly $500 million, making it one of the largest backers after the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
ICE’s Position: From $8bn Entry to $2bn on the Balance Sheet
ICE entered Polymarket at a far lower valuation. Its October 2025 press release disclosed a pre-investment valuation of approximately $8 billion, with ICE committing up to $2 billion across two tranches. The first, disclosed in its Q3 2025 10-Q, was a $1.0 billion purchase of 9.6 million Series D Preferred Stock shares, giving ICE approximately 17% of outstanding shares and 11% on a fully diluted basis.
The second tranche came on 26 March 2026: an additional $600 million in Series E Preferred Stock, per ICE’s Q2 2026 10-Q. Combined, ICE’s $1.6 billion in total investment carried a fair value of approximately $2.0 billion as of 30 June 2026, representing 22% of outstanding shares and 14% on a fully diluted basis. ICE accounts for the position outside equity-method treatment under ASC 323, as the preferred stock is not considered in-substance common stock.
The Series D terms, detailed in ICE’s 2025 annual filing, include a 6% non-cumulative dividend, mandatory conversion on a qualified IPO or direct listing, and pari passu liquidation preference. The Series E carries substantially similar rights.
How the Polymarket $1 Billion Raise Fits a Rapidly Escalating Prediction Market
1789 Capital’s initial Polymarket position was far more modest. Reuters, as republished via Yahoo Finance, reported that the firm’s first investment, announced 26 August 2025, was in the double-digit millions of dollars, with terms undisclosed. At that point Trump Jr. also joined Polymarket’s advisory board. The new $300 million slice, if the round closes at the reported terms, would mark a roughly 10x to 15x increase in 1789 Capital’s exposure in under a year.
The $21 billion valuation puts Polymarket just below Kalshi, its primary competitor. Kalshi’s Series F closed in May 2026 at a $22 billion valuation, raising $1 billion led by Coatue Management with Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, IVP, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest participating, per Kalshi’s newsroom. That round brought Kalshi’s total funding to approximately $2.8 billion and followed an $11 billion Series E in December 2025. Kalshi’s institutional trading volume rose 800% over the six months before the Series F, with annualised volume climbing from $52 billion to $178 billion. The Financial Times subsequently reported Kalshi in talks for a further raise at a valuation near $40 billion, though that round remains unconfirmed.
Polymarket has also been building regulated infrastructure. In July 2025 it acquired QCEX, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million, a move cited in a letter from House Judiciary Committee Democrats to 1789 Capital’s principals dated 26 August 2026.
The regulatory backdrop remains complicated. More than a dozen US states have taken legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi, or both over sports-event contracts. JPMorgan Chase reportedly severed its banking relationship with Polymarket in August 2025 over regulatory concerns, though it indicated interest in an underwriting role if Polymarket pursues a public listing.
Meanwhile, 1789 Capital’s broader fund performance has been driven partly by the Polymarket bet. A New York Times report, cited by Yahoo Finance, put the firm’s main fund returns at roughly 200% as of 30 June, against an average of about 21% for venture firms started in 2023 per PitchBook data. The firm, co-founded in 2022 by Omeed Malik and Chris Buskirk, also holds positions in SpaceX, Anduril, Cerebras, and Reflection AI.
Whether the $1 billion round closes at the reported $21 billion valuation, or Polymarket uses the QCEX licence to push toward a regulated public offering, is the binary that matters for ICE’s $2 billion carrying value and 1789 Capital’s rapidly enlarged position.
