Bitcoin crashed 50% from its October peak. Institutions bought 829,000 BTC anyway. That disconnect tells the story of 2025: price collapsed, bitcoin adoption surged.
“There is no bear market in Bitcoin adoption,” River said in a report published Tuesday. The financial services company documented institutional, merchant, and nation-state accumulation that accelerated even as BTC halved from all-time highs. The bitcoin adoption boom continues independent of price action.
Translation: adoption is compounding in ways that aren’t affecting price yet.
**Institutions Accumulated Despite Crash**
The numbers tell the story. Institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC in 2025 across businesses, governments, funds, and ETFs. Registered investment advisors net bought Bitcoin for eight consecutive quarters. They poured roughly $1.5 billion into Bitcoin ETFs every quarter over the past two years.
Those institutions represent “millions of underlying individuals” gaining BTC exposure through brokerage accounts, retirement plans, sovereign funds, and corporate balance sheets. First-time access at scale.
Businesses drove the buying. They were the largest BTC buyers in 2025, with crypto treasury companies leading the charge. That category grew 2.5 times last year. Public companies increased holdings despite range-bound prices.
**Banks Build Products**
Meanwhile, 60% of top US banks are building Bitcoin products. That’s a regulatory shift playing out in real time.
“With a favorable regulatory environment in the US, banks can now custody Bitcoin and offer Bitcoin products to their customers,” River stated. The infrastructure that blocked institutional adoption for years is dissolving. Banks that sat out 2017 and 2021 are now competing to offer BTC services.
The bitcoin adoption metrics tell a different story than price charts. While BTC trades 50% below peaks, the infrastructure supporting it expanded dramatically.
**Merchant Adoption Tripled**
Payment adoption accelerated faster than institutional buying. The number of US businesses accepting Bitcoin for payments tripled in 2025. Global merchant adoption grew 74% over the same period.
Lightning Network drove the payment surge. Bitcoin payments on Lightning grew 300% in 2025. River estimates the network now processes over $1.1 billion in monthly transaction volume. That’s actual commerce happening on a second-layer network that barely existed three years ago.
Compare that to 2021, when Lightning handled a fraction of current volumes. The payment rails matured while price crashed. Adoption and price decoupled.
**Nation-States Entered**
Five nation-states became new Bitcoin owners in 2025. Two sovereign wealth funds—Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia—purchased BTC. The Czech Republic’s central bank bought. So did Brazil and Taiwan through various channels.
River estimates 23 nation-states now hold Bitcoin through state-backed mining, seizures, or central bank exposure. That’s quiet accumulation that doesn’t hit headlines but changes the sovereign balance sheet landscape.
Question is whether more central banks follow the Czech Republic’s lead.
Nation-state adoption follows a predictable pattern. Early movers accumulate quietly. Announcements come later, if at all. El Salvador bought publicly. Most others buy through indirect channels—mining operations, seized assets, or central bank reserve diversification.
**Volatility Declining Toward Maturity**
River noted Bitcoin volatility is declining toward gold and S&P 500 levels. That signals it’s “increasingly viewed as a mature asset class.”
“As volatility falls, the hurdle for more risk-averse investors declines,” the report said. “Over time, that opens the door to larger pools of capital.”
Lower volatility matters for institutional allocation models. Pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds operate under volatility constraints. As Bitcoin volatility compresses, more capital becomes eligible to allocate.
**The Disconnect**
Price crashed. Bitcoin adoption accelerated. That’s the paradox of 2025.
River argues the adoption metrics matter more than short-term price action. “Trust in Bitcoin has grown faster than that of any asset in history,” the company said. “What began as an experiment is now a globally recognized store-of-value, with adoption patterns that rival the internet.”
The internet comparison isn’t hyperbole when you examine adoption curves. Internet users grew exponentially in the 1990s even as dot-com stocks crashed in 2000-2002. Infrastructure buildout continued through the bear market. Bitcoin follows a similar script.
The catch: adoption isn’t affecting price yet. River acknowledges the lag. Institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC, but that buying hasn’t stopped the 50% drawdown. Either selling pressure overwhelmed institutional demand, or the accumulation happened off-market in ways that didn’t create immediate price impact.
**What Comes Next**
River added that Bitcoin is the world’s “only scarce and incorruptible form of digital money” and expects bitcoin adoption will “not only continue its current trend, but meaningfully accelerate” in coming years.
That acceleration depends on whether volatility continues declining and regulatory clarity holds. Banks building products need stable rules. Merchants accepting payments need predictable transaction costs. Nation-states accumulating need confidence the asset won’t face sudden legal challenges.
Will adoption finally move price when volatility compresses further?
For now, the data shows divergence. Price tells one story. Adoption tells another. All eyes on which narrative wins when institutional capital unlocks.
