XRP’s 47.5% weekly advance has run into resistance below $1.60, with the U.S. Treasury’s decision to double long-end buyback sizes providing the macro catalyst that triggered the XRP price rally, while elevated Binance leverage now raises the stakes for whatever comes next.
The token traded near $1.47 on 24 August, briefly clearing $1.50 before giving back gains. Daily volume reached approximately $4.72 billion and market capitalisation stood at $92.3 billion. Despite the seven-day surge, XRP remains 59.6% below its July 2025 record of $3.65.
What the Treasury Buyback Expansion Actually Did
The macro trigger was the Treasury’s announcement that it would raise the maximum amount purchased per liquidity support operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The change covers nominal securities in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity ranges, effective 9 September, with the enlarged operations running through 4 November.
According to the official Treasury announcement, the increase reflects a desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in those buyback operations. The Treasury’s presentation to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) shows that Treasury had already doubled the frequency of operations in both maturity sectors at the August 2025 refunding, and had been buying back the maximum par amount in those sectors. The latest step is a scale increase on top of existing structural support.
Long-term Treasury yields fell on the announcement, the dollar softened, and risk assets advanced broadly. Some participants interpreted the move as yield curve control. It is not: yield curve control targets a specific rate through potentially unlimited purchases. Treasury’s operations are scheduled and capped. The Treasury has confirmed it will provide further information on future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding on 4 November 2026. Since the programme’s inception, the Treasury has repurchased nearly $500 billion across more than 150 operations, according to remarks by Deputy Secretary Francis Brooke.
XRP Price Rally Mechanics: Liquidations, Spot Demand, and Rising Leverage
The macro shift coincided with a market-wide short squeeze. CoinGlass data shows approximately $1.2 billion in crypto short positions were forcibly liquidated within a single 24-hour window during the breakout. To put the figure in context, CoinGlass recorded $2.23 billion in total crypto liquidations on 3 February 2025, with $1.88 billion of that in long positions alone. The $1.2 billion figure covers the broader crypto market, not XRP specifically.
Spot demand added to the move. Large holders accumulated approximately 380 million tokens during the week, and XRP Ledger transactions exceeding $1 million increased sharply. The accumulation data does not identify the owners or their motives: large transfers can reflect purchases, internal custody moves, or exchange activity in equal measure.
The leverage picture complicates the outlook. The estimated leverage ratio for XRP derivatives on Binance has climbed to its highest level since early 2026, per CryptoQuant. That is worth contextualising: CryptoQuant data shows the ratio had fallen from around 0.59 in mid-July 2025 to approximately 0.13 after a substantial deleveraging episode, a near-complete flush of speculative positioning before the current rally. The ratio has now rebuilt sharply. A rising leverage ratio means open interest is growing relative to the exchange’s XRP reserves; it does not indicate directional bias, but it does mean both squeezes and corrections can travel further.
The on-chain chart signals from the snippet support the momentum case. Volume on the breakout day reached 77.59 million tokens; the Chaikin Money Flow held positive at 0.13; and the Klinger Oscillator printed at 18.31 million, above its 10.1 million signal line, per the snippet’s chart analysis. That said, the CryptoQuant leverage rebuild is the variable most traders should watch alongside price.
Analyst EGRAG Crypto has placed the token inside a broader range pending a confirmed close above the identified resistance zone, with a speculative target of $6 to $7 contingent on another large cycle expansion. That target is not supported by a confirmed breakout and historical percentage gains do not guarantee recurrence.
The immediate resistance sits between $1.54 and the $1.60 psychological level. A sustained close above that zone would confirm buyers are still active after the initial squeeze subsides. First support is around $1.44; a deeper pullback toward $1.30 would return the token to the pre-breakout range. XRP’s 35.2% monthly gain supports the medium-term structure, but its 51.5% decline over the past year and the 59.6% gap to the record high mean the broader recovery remains incomplete.
The 9 September start of the larger Treasury operations, movements in long-end yields, and Binance leverage readings will be the three variables that determine whether the advance continues or reverses into that rebuilt open interest.
