Strategy’s capital market access is the structural load-bearing wall beneath its 840,447 BTC treasury, and a prolonged closure of that access would hit harder than any crypto bear market, according to an analysis by Strategy’s own 10-K filings and a recent report from Regime Intelligence.
The framing matters because most MSTR bears model a BTC-driven liquidation event. Regime Intelligence’s stress test puts that threshold at a roughly 96% decline in Bitcoin before the company’s holdings and reserves would no longer cover its convertible notes. That scenario is not where the exposure actually sits.
Capital Market Access and the Flywheel Mechanic
The debt structure carries no BTC-linked margin call. Strategy’s convertible notes do not function like a margin loan against its Bitcoin stack; there is no automated liquidation trigger as prices fall. The real constraint is the recurring cash obligation the company must service regardless of BTC price.
On that front, the numbers in Strategy’s own SEC filings diverge from the $1.76 billion annual obligation figure cited by Regime Intelligence. The company’s 10-Q filed through July 2025 showed $36.5 million in annual contractual interest expense and $568.03 million in aggregate annual preferred dividends on $6.3 billion notional preferred stock. A capital structure filing published via OTC Markets as of 31 October 2025 put total annual dividend and interest cost across the full capital structure at approximately $731 million, comprising $35 million in convertible debt interest, $570 million in cumulative preferred dividends across STRF, STRC, STRE, and STRK, and $125 million in non-cumulative STRD dividends. The STRD tranche can be suspended at any time. Regime Intelligence’s $1.76 billion figure appears to reflect a later or differently constructed estimate; both are worth tracking as the preferred book has grown.
What is not in dispute is the direction of travel. As of 31 December 2025, Strategy’s 10-K showed $8.25 billion in outstanding debt and $8.47 billion in aggregate notional preferred stock, against a $2.25 billion US dollar reserve held for dividends and interest. The company reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $4.229 billion for fiscal year 2025, versus $1.167 billion in 2024. The software business generated no positive operating cash flow and is not expected to cover financial obligations over the next twelve months.
Regime Intelligence author Sherif Saad put the core issue plainly: ‘In my opinion, MSTR’s principal challenge is to keep the flywheel running in order to cover the annual debt and preferred charges.’ Cash reserves currently cover approximately 2.6 times annualised charges, but Saad’s read is that if mNAV compresses alongside BTC, ‘raising capital would then become progressively more difficult or expensive.’
That flywheel depends on continuous equity and debt issuance. Strategy’s own FY2025 results filing disclosed that the company was the largest US equity issuer in fiscal year 2025, representing approximately 8% of total US equity issuance and raising $25.3 billion across the year. Losing that access, or having it become structurally more expensive, is where the model breaks.
BTC Sales and the Convertible Note Repurchase
Strategy has sold Bitcoin four times since May. The most recent transaction, disclosed in an 8-K filed 10 August 2026, covered the sale of 1,690 BTC for aggregate proceeds of $108.6 million at an average price of $64,262. Net proceeds funded repurchases of STRC stock under the company’s Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program. The BTC stack sat at 840,447 BTC with an aggregate cost basis of $63.36 billion and an average purchase price of $75,385. At current prices the stack is worth approximately $66.7 billion, above the cost basis for now.
CEO Phong Le has noted that Strategy has accumulated roughly 25 times more BTC than it has sold this year, and told CNBC the company plans to resume purchases later in 2025. The sales remain a tactical instrument, not a policy reversal.
Separately, Strategy is working through a plan to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion in convertible notes in a private transaction, according to The Coin Republic. The nearest convertible note maturity is September 2028, giving the company runway, but the repurchase signals active liability management rather than a passive hold-to-maturity posture.
The preferred dividend structure is also being restructured operationally: Strategy’s investor relations page shows proposed amendments to move STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD to daily dividend payment schedules from late 2026, without changing aggregate rates. Mechanically tidier, but the underlying obligation remains the same.
Watch Strategy’s mNAV premium and preferred share prices. If those compress in a prolonged BTC drawdown, the cost of fresh capital issuance rises precisely when the flywheel needs it most.
