The SpaceX Nasdaq-100 inclusion that takes effect around the July 6 close and July 7 open will compel passive funds to absorb an estimated $4.3 billion in SpaceX shares, according to JPMorgan, as a wave of Wall Street initiations led by Morgan Stanley’s street-high $300 base-case target lands simultaneously.
Morgan Stanley’s Model: Massive Revenue Upside, Equally Massive Capital Needs
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 base-case price target. Analyst Adam Jonas, as reported by Yahoo Finance, models SpaceX revenue rising from $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion in 2030 and reaching $3.3 trillion by 2040, with Starlink and terrestrial compute driving the bulk of that growth.
The bull case sits at $600, which Basenor notes implies an approximately $8 trillion market capitalisation: that would make SpaceX the most valuable company on Earth.
The model is not without friction. Jonas projects roughly $300 billion in annual capital expenditure by 2031, no positive free cash flow before 2035, and an estimated $84 billion of outside capital required every year through 2034. Jonas himself flags that funding requirement as one of the biggest risks to his forecast.
The Starship cost curve underpins much of the long-term case. Jonas projects launch costs falling to roughly $500 per kilogram by 2030 and below $150 per kilogram by 2040, with total annual launches scaling from 46 in 2027 to more than 6,000 by 2040.
Goldman Sachs also initiated with a Buy and a $205 target. Analyst Eric Sheridan wrote that SpaceX is well positioned across the space, connectivity, and AI industries, each of which has the potential to become “multiple trillion-dollar opportunities over a 5+ year time horizon.” Citigroup followed with a Buy and a $200 twelve-month target; UBS and Wells Fargo also initiated with positive recommendations.
The Mechanics of SpaceX Nasdaq-100 Inclusion
The accelerated entry is a product of the Nasdaq Fast Entry rule, enacted on 1 May 2026, which allows newly listed companies ranking within the top 40 by market cap to join the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, bypassing the regular rebalancing schedule. TechTimes reports that critics including Acadian Asset Management and the American Federation of Teachers have called it one of the most consequential shifts in index design in a generation.
CNBC reported SpaceX became one of the quickest additions ever to the index, with tracking funds and product sponsors beginning purchases after the 6 July market close. JPMorgan estimates that ETFs and index funds, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, will need to buy approximately $4.3 billion worth of shares during that rebalancing window, irrespective of their view on valuation.
SpaceX is expected to enter the benchmark with an index weighting below 1%. TechTimes puts the post-rebalancing position for funds benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100 at roughly 0.5% to 0.7%.
The S&P 500 is a different story. SpotGamma notes that on 4 June 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices rejected its own proposal to fast-track megacap IPOs into the S&P 500, leaving the 12-month seasoning requirement and GAAP profitability test unchanged. SpaceX will not be eligible until at least mid-2027.
SpaceX IPO’d on 12 June 2026 at $135 per share, implying a $1.75 trillion valuation at listing, with an unprecedented 30% retail allocation. SpotGamma reports that demand hit approximately $150 billion, roughly 2x oversubscribed.
The share price has not held that enthusiasm. The stock closed Monday down 0.98% at $160.42, trimming its weekly gain to just over 2% after profit-taking. By early Tuesday afternoon it had fallen a further 5.31% to $151.90, even as the index buying window opened.
The first public earnings report for SpaceX is scheduled for 2 September 2026, per the Morgan Stanley research note dated 7 July 2026 as reported by Yahoo Finance. Between now and then, the $84 billion annual external financing requirement is the number worth watching, not the analyst targets.
