USDC stablecoin trading volume reached $1.21 trillion in June 2026, accounting for 67% of a record $1.78 trillion in total adjusted stablecoin activity, according to Visa data cited by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl. Circle Internet Group shares have climbed in early July even as Jefferies maintained a bearish stance on the stock.
Tether’s USDT processed $573 billion in adjusted volume over the same period, less than half USDC’s figure. Tether did lead on transaction count, handling 145 million transfers against USDC’s 57 million, but the value gap was decisive.
USDC Stablecoin Trading Volume Holds Up Against OUSD Threat
The volume data matters because Circle’s stock had just endured a brutal month. CRCL fell 44.6% in June 2026, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data cited by The Motley Fool. The stock was also removed from five Russell indexes, not merely the ‘several’ widely reported, per the same source.
Much of the June selloff was tied to the launch of Open Standard’s OUSD stablecoin. Jefferies warned on 2 July that OUSD could pressure Circle’s market position and weigh on its valuation. Those concerns have since lost some force: Samsung and Dunamu, both listed as OUSD partners, publicly distanced themselves from the project, casting doubt on Open Standard’s claimed network of 140 partners.
USDC’s supply did soften slightly in the immediate aftermath, slipping from $73.75 billion on 30 June to $72.87 billion by 6 July, suggesting some capital rotated out around the OUSD launch. But USDC’s commanding lead in adjusted stablecoin trading volume remained intact.
ARK Keeps Buying While Jefferies Stays Cautious
ARK Invest’s institutional buying offered a counterpoint to the Jefferies note. The firm disclosed purchases of roughly $17.8 million worth of CRCL shares. The snippet places that purchase on 2 July, the same day as the Jefferies note; Crypto Briefing reports the purchase on 1 July when CRCL closed at $61.95, down 1.09% on the day. The exact session is disputed, but the direction of the trade is not.
ARK’s conviction in CRCL is not new. The firm’s largest single-session buy prior to this came on 24 March 2026, when it deployed $16.34 million as the stock fell 20% in one day, according to Crypto Briefing. As of the 13F filing dated 12 May 2026, ARK Investment Management held 4,509,482 shares of CRCL, per Fintel.
CRCL closed 4% higher at $64 on 2 July and was trading near $66 in pre-market on 6 July. The stock’s recovery reflects the USDC volume data and the softening of OUSD partner credibility, even as the Jefferies note remains on the table. Not every analyst shares that caution; Baird holds an Outperform rating on CRCL.
Technical Picture: Support Held, Resistance Still Overhead
From a chart standpoint, CRCL found support near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at $61.73 on the four-hour timeframe. Buyers have defended that level across recent sessions, lifting the stock from roughly $62 to near $66.
The broader trend has not yet turned. CRCL remains below the Supertrend indicator, which sits near $75.66 and continues to flag sellers in control. Reclaiming that level would be the first confirmation of strengthening bullish momentum.
The MACD histogram has nearly returned to the zero line after several weeks of negative readings, pointing to fading selling pressure. A confirmed bullish crossover has not yet occurred, with the MACD line still below the signal line.
A break above $75.66 opens Fibonacci retracement targets at $78.47, then $91.61 and $100.84. Losing the $61.73 support level would undermine the recovery and raise the probability of another leg lower. That level is the line bulls need to hold while USDC stablecoin trading volume data does the narrative work.
