XRP’s price breakout attempt has stalled at the same $1.07 resistance that turned away buyers across late June, even as Ripple’s new XRPL Lending Protocol and a careful escrow release rekindled buying interest heading into July.
XRP climbed roughly 5% from around $1.03 to an intraday high near $1.08 on 2 July, according to crypto.news data, before sellers reasserted themselves at a level that has now rejected multiple rallies. The recovery came directly after Ripple released 300 million XRP from escrow while relocking 700 million, leaving the total July unlock at one billion XRP. According to Pluang, the 300 million tokens released were valued at approximately $319 million, sized against XRP’s average daily trading volume of roughly $1.61 billion. With the majority of supply kept off the market, dilution concerns eased and buyers returned.
Ripple simultaneously announced the XRPL Lending Protocol (XLS-66), an institutional credit layer that supports fixed-term and uncollateralised loans. Under the structure, licensed institutions handle credit assessment and loan approval off-chain; the XRP Ledger then enforces interest calculations, repayment schedules, and default conditions on-chain. Validator approval was still pending at the time of announcement. Ripple outlined use cases covering payment companies bridging settlement windows, market makers financing inventory, and treasury teams deploying idle digital assets into underwritten credit facilities, with access gateable through on-chain credentials and permissioned domains.
Network metrics moved alongside the price. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger jumped more than 72%, and new wallet creation reached its highest level in roughly three months. Exchange balances continued falling as holders moved coins into self-custody, tightening immediately available supply during the rally.
The institutional narrative received an earlier boost at Apex 2025 (10–12 June), where Ondo Finance’s tokenised US Treasuries product OUSG went live on the XRP Ledger, with minting and redemptions settled via Ripple’s enterprise stablecoin RLUSD. That integration broadened the chain’s institutional footprint ahead of July’s catalysts.
XRP Price Breakout Faces a Stack of Moving Averages
The daily chart tells a straightforward story: XRP is still trading beneath every major moving average. The 20-day sits near $1.11, the 50-day around $1.21, the 100-day near $1.30, and the 200-day close to $1.49. A descending trendline connecting lower highs since May continues to cap each recovery, leaving the primary trend bearish until those barriers are reclaimed.
On the 4-hour chart, buyers have rebuilt short-term momentum. XRP has pushed back through recent consolidation lows and is testing the $1.075-$1.08 zone that rejected it repeatedly in June. The Supertrend indicator sits bearish near $1.09, making that the first confirmation level before bulls can target $1.15. A close above the Supertrend would also clear the Aroon picture: the daily reading still favours sellers, but the 4-hour Aroon Up has surged to 100%, showing that short-term momentum has shifted even if the larger structure has not.
CoinGlass liquidation data places one of the largest short liquidation clusters between $1.08 and $1.10. A decisive break through that range would trigger forced buying from leveraged short positions, with a squeeze potentially extending toward $1.11 and then $1.15. The downside has its own gravity: long liquidation pools concentrate around $1.03 and $1.02, levels that become the immediate support if the breakout fails.
Analyst ChartNerd, writing on X on 2 July, put the structural read plainly: ‘Relief is possible from this $1.00 low but the overall trend remains down for now.’ ChartNerd added that XRP has historically stayed under pressure after losing its 20-week exponential moving average, and that reclaiming approximately $1.35 would be needed to restore a bullish trend on higher timeframes.
Regulatory Drag Compounds the Technical Resistance
Beyond the chart, macro and policy headwinds remain. XRP sits roughly 70% below its peak near $3.66, with elevated Treasury yields continuing to limit capital flows into higher-risk assets.
The regulatory picture is more complicated than the original headlines suggested. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), introduced on 29 May 2025 by House Financial Services Chairman French Hill and advanced through committee mark-up sessions on 10 June, passed the House in July 2025. According to the Latham & Watkins US Crypto Policy Tracker, it then moved to the Senate, where disputes over stablecoin interest and rewards provisions left its passage unsettled. Elliptic corroborates that the Senate stalemate centres specifically on those stablecoin provisions. For XRP, a bill that looked like a near-term catalyst is now a longer-dated option.
A close above $1.09 on meaningful volume would be the clearest signal that the June resistance is broken and a squeeze toward $1.15 is underway. Below $1.03, and the $1.00 psychological level comes back into play, with the next demand zone sitting around $0.98.
